Russia- Pakistan relations. - A new beginning
As Russia continues to be battered with western sanctions over Ukraine it continues to get isolated from the west. It is therefore looking towards Asia for new partners and allies. This explains it's recent multi billion dollar gas deal with China. Now it has opened a new chapter in its foreign policy by courting Pakistan. Russia has lifted its arms embargo that it had imposed on Pakistan during the cold war. It continued with the embargo even after the cold war cause it did not want to offend India. More over there was no real need to do so. But after the recent crisis in Ukraine geopolitics has changed. Russia desperately needs to find new partners and markets. So the sale of weapons to Pakistan. But what does this means for India which would be alarmed by this new turn of events? And what significance does this have for Pakistan? What are other Russian motives for courting Pakistan? Let us examine the last question first. Russia is planning longterm. After the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan the Russians want to play a bigger role in that country. For this they need the support of Pakistan as it enjoys a long border with Afghanistan. Russia already has made central Asia as its backyard. It also has Iran as its ally. It only needs Pakistan on board to complete its encirclement of Afghanistan. Moreover the European market for its gas and defence goods may get closed if relations turn hostile over Ukraine. So Russia can open a new market in Pakistan. It can sell gas to energy starved Pakistan and weapons as well to go with it. Good relations with Pakistan can also help it in tackling its security issues in Dagestan. So Pakistan can be a good partner.
From Pakistani viewpoint it can get access too cheap Russian gas and hi tech defence goods. So alongside US, Europe and China it can now access Russian technology. This means it can get on par with India on conventional front too.Also a new partner which is a friend of its traditional rival India is good news.
From Indian perspective it has to be a wait and watch approach. Prima facie India will look at this new alliance warily. But it need not be all that bad. International relations is not a zero sum game and not all partnership's need be bad for ones interest.On Afghanistan india too wants to play a bigger role and Pakistani cooperation will be an added bonus. Plus if Pakistan can secure Russian gas so can India. A Russia Pakistan India pipeline coming via central Asia can be thought of. An arc of cooperation between south and central Asia including Iran, Russia and China can be created. India should remember that it is too big a country to be ignored by Russia. So there need not be any insecurity. As far as weapons sales are concerned one must wait to see what weapons Russia sales. India should have no objections to sale by Russia of non lethal or defensive weapons to Pakistan. Russia is an all weather ally of India and it will remain so.
But as they say in politics" there are no permanent friends or enemies".
As Russia continues to be battered with western sanctions over Ukraine it continues to get isolated from the west. It is therefore looking towards Asia for new partners and allies. This explains it's recent multi billion dollar gas deal with China. Now it has opened a new chapter in its foreign policy by courting Pakistan. Russia has lifted its arms embargo that it had imposed on Pakistan during the cold war. It continued with the embargo even after the cold war cause it did not want to offend India. More over there was no real need to do so. But after the recent crisis in Ukraine geopolitics has changed. Russia desperately needs to find new partners and markets. So the sale of weapons to Pakistan. But what does this means for India which would be alarmed by this new turn of events? And what significance does this have for Pakistan? What are other Russian motives for courting Pakistan? Let us examine the last question first. Russia is planning longterm. After the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan the Russians want to play a bigger role in that country. For this they need the support of Pakistan as it enjoys a long border with Afghanistan. Russia already has made central Asia as its backyard. It also has Iran as its ally. It only needs Pakistan on board to complete its encirclement of Afghanistan. Moreover the European market for its gas and defence goods may get closed if relations turn hostile over Ukraine. So Russia can open a new market in Pakistan. It can sell gas to energy starved Pakistan and weapons as well to go with it. Good relations with Pakistan can also help it in tackling its security issues in Dagestan. So Pakistan can be a good partner.
From Pakistani viewpoint it can get access too cheap Russian gas and hi tech defence goods. So alongside US, Europe and China it can now access Russian technology. This means it can get on par with India on conventional front too.Also a new partner which is a friend of its traditional rival India is good news.
From Indian perspective it has to be a wait and watch approach. Prima facie India will look at this new alliance warily. But it need not be all that bad. International relations is not a zero sum game and not all partnership's need be bad for ones interest.On Afghanistan india too wants to play a bigger role and Pakistani cooperation will be an added bonus. Plus if Pakistan can secure Russian gas so can India. A Russia Pakistan India pipeline coming via central Asia can be thought of. An arc of cooperation between south and central Asia including Iran, Russia and China can be created. India should remember that it is too big a country to be ignored by Russia. So there need not be any insecurity. As far as weapons sales are concerned one must wait to see what weapons Russia sales. India should have no objections to sale by Russia of non lethal or defensive weapons to Pakistan. Russia is an all weather ally of India and it will remain so.
But as they say in politics" there are no permanent friends or enemies".
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