Monday, September 22, 2014

Tibet- A Lost cause

For an Indian it might be impossible to spot a difference between a Tibetan and a Chinese, but ask a Tibetan and he will spot a Han from a mile. And there are millions to spot in Lhasa. The current Han Chinese population in Tibet autonomous  region is approximately 7 million. Every year at least 50000 Han Chinese are added to Tibet's ever growing population. The communist party in Beijing has permanently altered the demographics of Tibet and Lhasa. The land of snows has been emasculated by China for the last six and half decades and more.. Although history says that China occupied Tibet in 1950 the reality is that historically speaking the relationship between China and Tibet was always such that China could claim its sovereignty over Tibet any time. Whenever the central government in China was strong Tibet was under Chinese control and when central government in Beijing became weak Tibet gained more autonomy. There are numerous instances in history of Chinese army repealing Invasions by Indian kingdoms of Tibet the latest being the invasion of Tibet by Sikhs in 18th century a period in which Tibetans claim they were independent. The reality is that Tibet lost its independence the day it gave up its sword and adopted religion as its only weapon. A weak border is a unbearable temptation for an expansionist country and China is also an opportunist nation. It was quick to establish a patron and priest relationship with Tibet and the rest is history. Even when the British Indian empire invaded Tibet in 1904 under the command of Francis younghusband it was the qing empires army that tried to repeal the invasion albeit unsuccessfully. The biggest strategic mistake that Tibet did was that during the period between 1914 and  1950 it became inward looking and isolated from the rest of the world. Tibet refused to even allow itself to be used as a coducit for men and material transfer during the second world war,a decision which would earned it alliance of United States and a say in world affairs. Worst still Tibet even prohibited entry of foreigners into Lhasa for the fear of outside world. It did not make any attempt at building a modern army, a fact which was related to its international isolation. At the time of the Han invasion of Tibet the strength of Tibetan army was 8000 troops as opposed to a million strong peoples liberation army of communist China. Tibet became an easy prey. Another geopolitical mistake made by Tibet an leaders was the flight of His Holiness the Dalia Lama to India. History is replete with examples that freedom cannot be won if country's main leadership is located outside its territory.The entire kashag, as the Tibetan government is called fled to india with the consequence that today the government in exile is recognized by no one not even its host country. Great leaders like Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther king fought their struggles not from another but by staying with their people. Leaders like Gandhi, Nehru, Mandela And king were always prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice for their country a facet which is probably absent in Dalai Lama. The day Dalai Lama fled, Tibetan people became leaderless and had no one to rally around for their struggle against a powerful foe.
     As far as Tibet's neighbour India was concerned Tibet was a colonial legacy. Jawaharlal Nehru did not consider Tibet to be India's problem and made every effort at international forums to postpone the discussion on the Tibet question. For him relationship with China was more important than India's national security interests. He even refused a seat at the UNSC and favoured it to China. It seems he was more worried about Chinese national interest than India's. In such and environment Tibet had no chance at surviving as an independent nation.
     In the 21 St century China has begun rapid infrastructure development in Tibet. Although India worries that this development is aimed at itself the reality is that infrastructure development of Tibet is to integrate Tibet with the rest of China. India is secondary. The same policies are being applied to another minority region of China, xinxiang. Ever since Hu Jintao too power of CPC the Chinese have begun to concentrate on the economic development of their interior regions.
 In such a scenario India too needs to build up its border infrastructure not just as a force against China but to integrate these regions with the rest of the country. Take a leaf out of Chinese books. If you separate their will be separatism and India knows that from its experience in northeast.
 As Napoleon once said " let China sleep. If she awakes the world will be sorry".  Tibet certainly has found that out.


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